It’s here!

The persistent TL rate recession may finally be over.

What we’re seeing right now is a clear shift in the market, and we believe it will be rather violent vs. a soft rate recovery. There are too many warning signs going off right now that higher rates are already here and could soar much higher, much faster than anticipated.

Be prepared!

Rates are rising, and if you recently negotiated lower “contract” rates, expect to be disappointed in your carrier acceptance rates.

Early last year, we predicted rates would rise significantly by the end of the year, but that didn’t happen due to a variety of issues—primarily the stubbornly soft demand side of the equation. Demand doesn’t appear to be causing this increase in rates. It’s supply. All you have to do is basic research around why capacity is shrinking to understand why. Rather than explaining it all, I’ll let you do your own research to reach your own conclusions. It’s better learning that way anyhow!

I love charts, so you’ll get several of them below. Data doesn’t lie and isn’t emotional, so I follow the data.

Typically, there are a number of indicators I watch. And yes, I also listen to what my folks and our clients are saying regarding their feel for the market. Right now, the “feel” is not good—carriers are dropping off committed loads regularly, causing a disruption in plans, scrambling recoveries, and higher rates. Other indicators are DAT KPIs, Truckstop.com, CASS Index, Fed PPIs (these are seriously delayed due to the shutdown), Sonar data, etc., etc.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE! I can’t tell you how many times I’ll say this, but do not ignore the signs! EXPECT rates to increase and position yourselves accordingly internally and externally with your customers.

It’s coming, and we can argue with it if we want to, but it sure looks like the trend has changed.

For your viewing pleasure! Please reach out to me with any questions or comments!