I haven’t written about what I see happening in the freight markets for quite a long time now, primarily because I haven’t had a clue. This is the longest downturn in the freight market that I can remember, and I’ve been in it a long time! But markets are cyclical, and what goes down must go up. It happens every single time, and the signs are there.

This morning, I read an article by Craig Fuller at FreightWaves that hit home to me. It’s coming! None of us may know exactly when, but the pendulum is going to swing back, and it will be violent. Now, I did expect rates to increase in 2025 by double digits compared to 2024, but the issues holding back volume have persisted, aided too by tariffs. They are barely up 1%. LTL, on the other hand, has maintained its strength and is expected to be up 5-6% in 2025.

TRUTH – Anyone who has done a recent truckload RFP is unlikely to have those rates honored. They will be paper rates as trucks won’t be “available.” That’s just economic reality. Now may be the time to strategically tighten your relationships with carriers and RAISE rates. Yep, raise them. Read the article and you’ll see why. When this turns, a $1,000 TL may become $2,000 overnight—if you can find a truck.

This is without a demand surge. If that happens, watch out!

So what can you do? As always, prepare for higher rates and begin discussing them with your customers. Truth Bomb: to stick your head in the sand and ignore it will result in extreme frustration and angry outbursts, which will likely happen anyhow. Because it’s coming.

Too often when rates start to rise or “freight” gets tough, uninformed executives look to change providers or demand negotiating lower rates with no idea about the opportunities they have right in front of them if only their teams would execute. Most of the time the answer is internal with lower cost opportunities but their default is to change a partner vs. accountability. Data gets ignored yet the solution is already there! Our TMS and teams can help you capture some of those opportunity costs so don’t ignore the data!

Read the full story here, then let’s talk about what it means for your freight strategy.

“Fraud continues to accelerate, as fraudsters have figured out how to reverse engineer Highway’s and RMIS’ systems. This has caused a sharp increase in fraud, and brokers (afraid of getting stung) have learned the hard way and are no longer overriding even the most benign flags.” — Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves

Our team recently discussed that we have caught more double brokers in the last two weeks than in the previous four months.

Key takeaways

The freight industry is currently experiencing a severe downturn characterized by weak volumes and financial challenges for carriers and brokers.

A significant “capacity purge” is anticipated, potentially eliminating up to 600,000 active drivers, driven primarily by new regulatory changes regarding non-domiciled CDLs and English Language Proficiency requirements.

This widespread driver elimination, coupled with declining freight volumes and increasing fraud, is expected to lead to numerous bankruptcies but will ultimately result in higher driver pay, increased freight rates, and a more stable, albeit consolidated, market for surviving carriers.